Week 15 AFC Playoff Look: Colts Playoff Path Starts In Denver

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INDIANAPOLIS – Game of the year is here for the 2024 Colts.

At 6-7, the Colts are still sitting 8^th in the AFC, one position outside of a playoff spot.

With the Colts back from their bye, they’ll play the Broncos (8-6) in Denver, with major playoff implications on the line with a 4:25 PM kickoff.

Per the New York Times playoff predictor, the Colts currently have a 29 percent at making the playoffs. If the Colts beat the Broncos, the playoffs chances will rise to 65 percent. If the Colts lose to the Broncos, the playoff chances will drop to 9 percent. Basically, a win would put the Colts in a position to make the playoffs, still needing some help. A loss would mean the Colts would need a miracle to make the postseason.

A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current situation:

Yes, the Colts still have a chance at winning the AFC South. But it’s going to take a ton of winning from the Colts (6-7) and help from the Texans (8-5). Both teams were on their bye last week, leaving 4 games left for each. Because the Texans have secured the head-to-head tiebreaker already, the Colts must makeup 3 games in those 4 weeks against Houston to win their first division title since 2014. That means a 4-0 finish by the Colts and the Texans going 1-3 or 0-4; or a 3-1 finish by the Colts and an 0-4 finish by the Texans. The Colts finish with these 4 games: at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars. The Texans finish with these 4 games: Dolphins, at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans. Again, this is very unlikely, but still possible.

Yes, the Colts have a better shot at making the playoffs via the AFC Wild Card, with a massive, massive, massive game waiting at Denver in Week 15. With a Colts win, they’ll be one game back of the Broncos, but have that critical head-to-head tiebreaker. If that occurs, the Colts would then need to be just 1 game better than the Broncos in the final 3 weeks (i.e. Colts go 3-0/Broncos go 2-1 or worse; Colts go 2-1/Broncos go 1-2 or worse; Colts go 1-2/Broncos go 0-3). Again, the Colts finish with these 4 games: at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars. The Broncos finish with these 4 games: Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, Chiefs.

Basically, the AFC playoff picture is down to 8, maybe 9, teams for 7 spots. Miami at 6-7 must make up a game on the Colts, due to Indy having the head-to-head tiebreaker. It is unusual to see such separation with 5 weeks to go but that’s how the AFC is—super top/bottom heavy—in 2024.

Outside of rooting against Denver and Miami, the Colts would find some benefit if Baltimore (8-5) and/or the Chargers (8-5) starts to slip. The Ravens are returning from their bye and then close with these final 4 games: at Giants, Steelers, at Texans, Browns. The Colts would need to finish 2 games better than the Ravens in the final 4 for it to matter in possibly finishing above Baltimore. The Chargers close with: Bucs, Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders. Weirdly, some 3-team ties of 9-8 squads would benefit the Colts, but it’s probably too early to pay close attention to that just yet.