Week 17 AFC Playoff Look: How Can Colts Still Make Postseason?
- Colts officially eliminated from AFC South, last home playoff game in 2015.
- Colts need Texans loss, wins over Jags & Texans, and favorable results elsewhere.
- Strength of victory tiebreaker crucial, Colts need to root for certain teams.
INDIANAPOLIS – So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.
Yes, despite 5 straight losses, the Colts (8-7) still have a (very fading) path into the postseason with 2 games left to go this season.
Currently, the Colts have a 1 percent chance at making the playoffs (per New York Times). With a Week 17 win over the Jaguars, those chances would climb to 5 percent. With a loss, they would be eliminated.
The Colts could actually be eliminated from the playoffs before kicking off their own game on Sunday against the Jaguars. If the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday afternoon, then the Colts would be eliminated.
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current playoff situation: –
-With Monday’s loss, the Colts are officially eliminated from the AFC South. Either the Jaguars or Texans will win the division this season. That means the Colts have not won the AFC South in 11 straight years. Last year, the Colts were eliminated from the division with 3 games to go. In 2025, that happened with 2 games still left. The last home playoff game for the Colts? January 4, 2015.
-What must happen for the Colts to make the playoffs? Let’s start with 3 individual games the Colts have to have: A Texans loss to the Chargers this Saturday; A Colts win over the Jaguars this Sunday; a Colts win in Houston in next week’s season finale. Those 3 are a must. If that happens, that would place the Colts and Texans both with 10-7 records and the tiebreakers would get wanky. The two teams would have split the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the divisional record tiebreaker, and the common games record tiebreaker, and the conference record tiebreaker. That would mean the final AFC Wild Card spot would come down to strength of victory between the two teams. Currently, the Texans hold an edge in this scenario: .436 win percentage vs. .385 win percentage.
-Let’s get more into the strength of victory tiebreaker here. Basically, along with winning those 3 games mentioned above, the Colts also need to root for the teams they have already beat this season, while rooting against the teams the Texans have beat. So, the Colts really need to root for the Broncos in the final two weeks, and against the Chiefs. Other teams the Colts need to root for: the Dolphins and the Falcons (teams the Colts have beat and the Texans haven’t this year). They also need to root against the 49ers, Ravens, Bills (all teams the Texans have beat and the Colts haven’t). This gets very complicated very quickly. But that’s the gist of it.
-If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 2 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record)
1. Broncos (12-3, 7-3): at Chiefs, Chargers
2. Patriots (12-3, 7-3): at Jets, Dolphins
3. Jaguars (11-4, 7-3): at Colts, Titans
4. Steelers (9-6, 7-3): at Browns, Ravens
Wild Card Teams
5. Chargers (11-4, 8-2): Texans, at Broncos
6. Bills (11-4, 8-3): Eagles, Jets
7. Texans (10-5, 8-2): at Chargers, Colts
Outside Looking In
8. Colts (8-7, 6-5): Jaguars, at Texans
9. Ravens (7-8, 5-6): at Packers, at Steelers
