Week 16 AFC Playoff Look: Colts Still In Playoff Race
- Colts need to win at least 2 of final 3 games to make playoffs
- Colts have head-to-head tiebreaker over Chargers, must beat Jaguars and Texans
- Colts can't be officially eliminated in Week 16, but division title hopes fading
INDIANAPOLIS – In a 4-game losing streak, the Colts still enter the final three weeks of the season in the AFC playoff race.
They will likely need to win at least 2 of their final 3 games though (49ers, Jaguars, at Texans).
Currently, the Colts have an 8 percent chance at making the playoffs (per New York Times). With a Week 16 win over the 49ers, those chances would climb to 17 percent. With a loss, those chances would drop to 3 percent.
If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be one spot outside of the 7-team field.
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current playoff situation: –
-Capturing that elusive AFC South title continues to fade for the Colts. With the Jaguars (10-4) and the Texans (9-5), the Colts (8-6) likely need to win out to have any shot at the division. Even winning out wouldn’t guarantee that though. As the Colts have slid (4 straight losses), the Jaguars (5 straight wins) and Texans (6 straight wins) been hot, flipping this division form how it was looking entering November. If the AFC South indeed goes to Jacksonville or Houston, the Colts will have gone 11 years without a division title.
-Unless I’m missing something, I don’t believe the Colts can be eliminated from the playoffs, even if they lose on Monday. They would obviously need to then win their final two games, plus a world of help to make the playoffs, but official postseason elimination can’t occur in Week 16. They would be eliminated from the AFC South though with a loss on Monday, plus the Jaguars beating the Broncos on Sunday.
-All three AFC Teams ranked higher than the Colts in the Wild Card won on Sunday (Bills, Chargers, Texans). With the AFC South hopes for the Colts facing quite the daunting climb to actually win the division, it’s the Wild Card serving as the best path to playoff entry. Specifically, if the Chargers slip up with a difficult ending schedule (at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos), the Colts do have the head-to-head tiebreaker there. But the Chargers are 2 games up on the Colts with 3 weeks left, so Indy will need to make up multiple games in order to make this possible. With the Texans only a game up on the Colts, and the two playing again in Week 18, they are the closest competition. If the Colts beat the Texans in Week 18, they split the head-to-head tiebreaker, so it will then go to divisional record. And that’s where the Colts will have to beat the Jaguars in Week 17, in order to have the same AFC South record as Houston (4-2). Currently, the AFC South records for the 3 teams still in the mix for the division is as followed Jaguars (3-2, still play the Titans), Texans (4-1, still play the Colts), Colts (2-2, still play the Jaguars and at the Texans). This matters only if the Colts can beat both the Jaguars and Texans, in order to create splits in the first tiebreaker, which is head-to-head.
-With 3 weeks left to play in the regular season, 9 of the 16 teams are still alive for the 7 AFC playoff spots. Let’s go over head-to-head tiebreakers the Colts have and don’t have. They have direct tiebreakers over the Broncos (can’t catch them) and Chargers. They don’t have direct tiebreakers over the Steelers, and must beat the Jaguars and Texans in Week 17 and 18 if they want those head-to-head tiebreakers to be a split). Now, when 3 teams get involved in tiebreakers, that complicates things more. Once head-to-head is used, the next tiebreaker becomes conference record (see below), that’s why it’s even more critical the Colts win their two AFC games in the final two weeks.
-If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 3 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record)
1. Broncos (12-2, 7-2): Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers
2. Patriots (11-3, 6-3): at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins
3. Jaguars (10-4, 6-3): at Broncos, at Colts, Titans
4. Steelers (8-6, 7-3): at Lions, at Browns, Ravens
Wild Card Teams
5. Chargers (10-4, 8-2): at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos
6. Bills (10-4, 7-3): at Browns, Eagles, Jets
7. Texans (9-5, 7-2): Raiders, at Chargers, Colts
Outside Looking In
8. Colts (8-6, 6-4): 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans
9. Ravens (7-7, 4-5): Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
