Week 15 AFC Playoff Look: Colts Outside Of Playoff Picture

• Colts' grip on AFC South division lead gone, face uphill battle to make playoffs
• Colts have toughest remaining schedule, Chargers most likely playoff path
• Colts need 2 wins from 4 tough games, hope Chargers struggle to make playoffs

INDIANAPOLIS – For the first time in the 2025 season, the Colts are outside of the AFC playoff race.

Currently, the Colts have a 24 percent chance at making the playoffs (per New York Times). With a Week 15 win over the Seahawks, those chances would climb to 45 percent. With a loss, those chances would drop to 19 percent.

If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be one spot outside of the 7-team field.

A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current playoff situation:                                                            –

-The once strong grip on the AFC South is now gone for the Colts (8-5). They are looking up at both the Jaguars (9-4) and Texans (8-5), having lost the first of two meetings to each of those teams, with rematches in Week 17 and Week 18. Those hopes of winning the division and hosting a home playoff game for the first time in 11 years has now shifted to being unlikely. For the AFC South being somewhat possible, beating both the Jaguars (home) and Texans (road) in Week 17 and 18 will be a must. Both the Jaguars (vs. Jets) and Texans (vs. Cardinals) are touchdown-plus home favorites this Sunday.

-The Colts have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL: at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans. The Jaguars have the 23^rd hardest: Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans. The Texans have the 27^th hardest: Cardinals Raiders, at Chargers, Colts.

-So how do the Colts realistically make the playoffs? Based off the current standings, I view the Chargers as the most likely path. Yes, the Chargers are 9-4, whereas the Colts are 8-5. But the Colts have that head-to-head tiebreaker over the Charges. They just need to make up a game on them over the final 4 weeks. While the Colts have a tough schedule (and a very iffy quarterback situation), so do the Chargers. Could the Colts find 2 wins out of: at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans. If that happens, and the Chargers go 1-3 with their slate: at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos, then the Colts would be above them (assuming no other teams are tied with them.

-If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.

Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 4 weeks remaining:

Division Leaders (overall record, conference record)

1. Broncos (11-2, 7-2): Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers

2. Patriots (11-2, 6-2): Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins

3. Jaguars (9-4, 6-2): Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans

4. Steelers (7-6, 6-3): Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens

Wild Card Teams

5. Chargers (9-4, 7-2): at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos

6. Bills (9-4, 6-3): at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets

7. Texans (8-5, 7-2): Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, Colts

Outside Looking In

Colts (8-5, 6-4): at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans

Ravens (6-7, 4-5): at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers

Chiefs (6-7, 3-5): Chargers, at Titans, Broncos, at Raiders

Dolphins (6-7, 3-6): at Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers, at Patriots