Week 16 AFC Playoff Look: How Can Colts Still Make Playoffs?
Source: Matthew Stockman / Getty
INDIANAPOLIS – As crushing as the loss to Denver was, the Colts can still make the playoffs.
Seriously.
Now, they are going to need a lot of help, mainly from the Chargers, to get into the postseason.
At 6-8, the Colts are still sitting 8th in the AFC, one position outside of a playoff spot.
With the Colts (6-8) returning home in Week 16, they will take on the Titans (3-11) at 1:00 PM.
Per the New York Times playoff predictor, the Colts currently have a 14 percent at making the playoffs. If the Colts beat the Titans, the playoffs chances will rise to 20 percent. If the Colts lose to the Titans, the playoff chances will drop to 1 percent.
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current situation:
- Yes, Colts have been eliminated from the AFC South. With the Texans (9-5) winning on Sunday, and the Colts (6-8) losing, plus Houston having the head-to-head tiebreaker, the AFC South has been won by the Texans. So, with 3 weeks left in the season, the Colts have been eliminated from winning a division that they have not won in 10 years.
- Shockingly, the Colts still have a shot at making the playoffs, but they need a lot of help and the scenarios can get pretty complicated. Teams the Colts need to root against are the Chargers (Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders) and Ravens (Steelers, at Texans, Browns. If the Chargers lose 2 of their last 3, and the Colts win all 3, then the Colts will finish above them, opening up a pathway into the playoffs. This seems to be “simplest” or clearest path. So the Colts will need to beat 3 teams currently drafting in the top 6: Titans, at Giants, Jaguars. And then will need for the Chargers to lose to at least 1 team currently drafting in the top 3: at Patriots or at Raiders (assuming the Broncos beat the Chargers on Thursday Night Football this week).
- To put it simply, the Colts need to win their final 3 games: Titans, at Giants, Jaguars AND have the Chargers lose 2 of their final 3 games: Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders. That would give both teams a 9-8 record, but the Colts would win the tiebreaker of having a better conference record.
- Another potential, yet pretty unlikely path, would come from the Colts winning out, and the Ravens losing out. The Ravens finish with these 3 games: Steelers, at Texans, Browns.
- Weirdly, and thanks to conference record, the Colts seem to have some favorable tiebreaking situations if they get into a 3 or more teams with 9-8 records (which these teams can still finish: Texans, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Bengals).
- If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 3 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record, New York Times playoff odds), * clinched playoff spot
1. *Chiefs (13-1, 8-1, 100%): Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos
2. *Bills (11-3, 7-2, 100%): Patriots, Jets, at Patriots
3. *Steelers (10-4, 7-2, 100%): at Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals
4. *Texans (9-5, 7-2, 100%): at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans
Wild Card Teams
5. Ravens (9-5, 5-4, 99%): Steelers, at Texans, Browns
6. Broncos (8-6, 5-4, 90%): at Chargers, at Bengals, Chiefs
7. Chargers (8-6, 5-4, 87%): Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders
Outside Looking In
8. Colts (6-8, 5-5, 14%): Titans, at Giants, Jaguars
9. Dolphins (6-8, 5-5, 6%): 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
10. Bengals (6-8, 3-6, 4%): Browns, Broncos, at Steelers
