5 Positive Colts “what if” Scenarios

Source: Icon Sportswire / Getty

The Colts are about halfway finished with training camp, which is crazy if you think about it. And thus far there have been the normal story lines and a few camp battles as we wait for preseason games to start.

One thing I noticed when previewing the team for about 15 hours on the air each week is how easy we flip to the negative. And that’s everyone not just media. Because of the lack of playoff success under Chris Ballard it’s easy to default to negative. Trust me, I get it, I’ve done it as well. Plus, last year didn’t help with Anthony Richardson’s injury and then playing good football but ultimately losing out in the final seconds of the final game.

But let’s move all of that aside. For this exercise let’s imagine things DO work out positively for the Colts and many of the storylines we’ve talked about actually end up working out in the team’s favor. Take a look at my list below and tell me what I missed…

1. What if…Anthony Richardson Stays Healthy, Balls Out

Any list or analysis of the Colts has to start with Anthony Richardson. No doubt fans are excited about his future, but it’s tough to ignore the injury factor. That combined with lack of experience means we don’t really know what to expect from AR once the season kicks off.

But for this exercise, let’s examine “what if” AR balls out? What if after this season the national media is talking about him like they do CJ Stroud? What if the Colts know they’ve finally found their stud QB for the first time since Andrew Luck retired?

And with Steichen as his coach there’s good reason to think this could happen. Remember that Steichen really helped Jalen Hurts in his first full season starting (3,144 yards passing, 784 yards rushing, 26 TD) and then took his game to a whole new level in their second year together in 2022 (3,701 yards passing, 760 yards rushing, 35 TD).

If AR develops then the Colts matter for years to come. 

2. What if…Jonathan Taylor is Dominant Once Again?

I think the next couple years will determine if Jonathan Taylor is viewed as an all-time great who could knock on the door of Canton or a really good RB who had a couple special seasons.

But “what if” he returns somewhere close to 2021 form? I think it’s silly to think that in today’s NFL a running back will hit 1,800 yards again, but we also know Steichen wants to run the damn ball. Last year the NFL’s leading rusher was Christian McCaffrey at 1,459 and in 2022 both Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry eclipsed 1,500 yards. I think a solid over/under for JT if he plays 15-17 games is somewhere in the 1,300-1,400-yard range. The only caveat is how much Richardson will eat into that number. 

Lastly, we know Steichen wants to run the ball. In Philadelphia, Myles Sanders had (by far) his best season in 2022 when he eclipsed 1,200 yards rushing and scored 11 TD. Furthermore, it’s important to remember that the Eagles offense in 2022 was 3rd in yards per game, 5th in rushing yards per game, and third in red zone percentage. All great signs for a guy like Jonathan Taylor.

Personally, I expect this “what if” to hit and Taylor to have a superb year. Chris Ballard agrees, no doubt.

3. What if…Julian Blackmon is the Strong Safety of the Future?

If you’ve been to practice or consumed any post-practice reports, you know Safety is by far the biggest problematic position. And it’s magnified because Ballard did basically nothing to address it this offseason. But let’s be positive and that’s where we get to Julian Blackmon.

“What if” Blackmon plays all 17 games, the Colts make the playoffs, and he’s the one that solidifies the back end of the defense? Furthermore, “what if” he’s so good that Ballard can’t let him walk out of the building in free agency?

It’s crazy to think that Blackmon hit free agency, came back to the Colts, and is only being paid 3.1 million for the season. There aren’t many more indispensable players on the Colts than Blackmon.

4. What if…Latu is the Starter?

I thought Latu would eventually grow into being a starter. In the first month or so of the season I figured he’d be more of a relief pitcher…come in on 3rd downs and select early down situations. And then by the middle/end of the season he’d be your starter. We’ve already heard from multiple Colts offensive lineman that he’s surprised them with how well he moves in the run game.

But “what if” this guy hits and is next level? What if he’s the guy Ballard has been trying to find who can come off the edge and wreck offenses? Get this…in the last 5 years only 3 players have recorded double digit sacks. I’m sure everyone recognizes Maxx Crosby, Josh Allen, and Micah Parsons. What if Latu hits that threshold? 

From what I’ve seen at camp this guy has quickly earned a much larger chunk of reps in practice and hopefully in these upcoming preseason games. 

5. What if…Mitchell is the truth?

I’ll give Ballard credit for trying ever avenue to improve the WR position. In just the last couple months we’ve heard leaks of him calling the Vikings over Justin Jefferson and then the revelation earlier this week about trying to trade up to 6 in the draft to grab Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. After not being able to make a move, I’ll still give him credit. Ballard stockpiled a few picks and eventually got Adonai Mitchell from Texas (and Georgia).

What if this guy emerges as a true weapon? I won’t compare him to AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith but those guys under Steichen blossomed in 2022. The Eagles that season were one of two teams to have two 1,000 yard receivers. 

It’s hard to put an over/under on Mitchell’s rookie season. I still think Alec Pierce gets more early reps but eventually the talent will start to show with Mitchell. Downs had 68 catches, Jayden Reed 64, Tank Dell 47 (was injured), and Jaxon Smith-Njiba with 63.

At some point AD’s talent will win out.