Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty
INDIANAPOLIS – Thanks to plenty of Wild Card teams folding in Week 16, the Colts playoff chances didn’t drop too much, although the margin for error has all but shrunk.
At 8-7, the Colts still have the 7th and final Wild Card spot with 2 weeks remaining this season. If the playoffs started today, the Colts would travel to Miami to take on the No. 2 seed Dolphins.
Per the New York Times playoff predictor, the Colts currently have a 56 percent chance at making the playoffs. That number could fluctuate by about 47 percent depending on the win/loss result versus the Raiders this Sunday (74% if Colts win, 27% if Colts lose).
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current situation:
- Many have asked if the Colts win their two games are they in the playoffs? They are very likely to make the payoffs under that scenario, but it’s not a given. If the Colts and the Bengals end the season with the same record, or the Colts, Bengals and Bills end the season with the same record head-to-head tiebreaker would be used, and Cincinnati has that over Indianapolis. And a three-way tie with the Bills, Colts and Bengals would also not favor Indianapolis (the Bengals would win that because they have beaten both teams). Seemingly, all other Wild Card type tiebreakers are in the favor of the Colts though. So 2 wins should be enough, but it’s not 100 percent.
- Basically, for the Colts (8-7) to make the playoffs, they need to finish ahead of the Texans (8-7), and also avoid the two scenarios with the Bengals listed above (1. Colts and Bengals tied for the final playoff spot; 2. Colts, Bengals and Bills tied for the final playoff spot). A split by the Colts in the final two weeks would lead to a playoff spot if the Steelers (8-7) don’t win their final two games, and the Bengals don’t finish the year with the same record as the Colts. Because the Steelers swept the Bengals, they will advance in any tiebreaker involving them, which benefits the Colts after they beat the Steelers. Again, the Colts want to avoid any situation in which the Colts and Bengals are the only two teams with the same record.
- The Colts are one of 4 AFC teams currently with a record of 8-7 and not leading a division. And just 1 of those 4 are in the playoffs (Colts) and 3 are outside (Texans, Steelers and Bengals). Again, one of the biggest things in the Colts favor down the stretch (along with a favorable quarterback schedule) is the fact they are 6-4 in the AFC. The conference tiebreaker is the first Wild Card tiebreaker between teams who didn’t play against each other this year and aren’t in the same division. The Colts are well-positioned with this tiebreaker, particularly when you compare them to the teams outside the current playoff picture.
- Should they just flex Colts and Texans into a stand alone night game for Week 18? Currently, that game carries playoff weight of 56 percent (77 percent if Colts win, 21 percent if Colts lose), which is an insanely high mark.
- One potential thing to keep in mind looking ahead to the Colts and Texans in Week 18. A win would give the Colts the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans based off a season sweep. Let’s say the Texans lose though to the Titans in Week 17, but then beat the Colts in Week 18. If Houston wins that game, the teams will have split the head-to-head matchups and both would finish 3-3 in AFC South. So the next tiebreaker would be strength of victory. Currently, the Texans have that tiebreaker (cue head spinning).
- With the Jaguars losing once again in Week 16, along with the Colts and Texans, the AFC South remains unchanged at the top. At 8-7, the Jaguars are tied with the Colts and Texans record wise, but Jacksonville has (and will win) the three-way tiebreaker over the Colts and Texans, no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Jaguars end the year with these 2 games: at Panthers, Titans. For the Colts to finish ahead of the Jaguars, they’ll need one of these two situations to happen: go 2-0 and have the Jaguars go 1-1 or worse; go 1-1 in the final 2 weeks and have the Jaguars go 0-2.
- A reminder of the head-to-head tiebreaker won and lost by the Colts: Won: Steelers; Lost: Jaguars, Browns, Bengals. The Colts still have AFC games left with the Texans (already won the first meeting) and the Raiders.
- If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 2 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record, New York Times playoff odds)
1. Ravens (12-3, 7-3, 100%): Dolphins, Steelers
2. Dolphins (11-4, 7-3, 100%): at Ravens, Bills
3. Chiefs (9-6, 7-3, 98%): Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jaguars (8-7, 6-5, 73%): Panthers, at Titans
Wild Card Teams
5. Browns (10-5, 6-3, 99%): Jets, at Bengals
6. Bills (9-6, 5-5, 90%): Patriots, at Dolphins
7. Colts (8-7, 6-5, 55%): Raiders Texans
Outside Looking In
8. Texans (8-7, 5-4, 33%): Titans, at Colts
9. Steelers (8-7, 6-5, 14%): at Seahawks, at Ravens
10. Bengals (8-7, 3-7, 17%): at Chiefs, Browns
11. Raiders (7-8, 5-5, 14%): at Colts, Broncos
12. Broncos (7-8, 4-6, 6%): Chargers, at Raiders
Colts Playoff Chances (other results will alter these percentages):
-2-0 finish: 99%
-1-1 (beat Raiders, lose to Texans): 35%
-1-1 (lose to Raiders, beat Texans): 46%
-0-2: less than 1%
