Week 16 AFC Playoffs: Colts In Both Wild Card, Division Races

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INDIANAPOLIS – The Colts playoff chances improved dramatically by beating the Steelers in Week 15, and it’s time to start looking at their path to winning the AFC South.

At 8-6, the Colts still have the 7^th and final Wild Card spot with 3 weeks remaining this season. If the playoffs started today, the Colts would travel to Miami to take on the No. 2 seed Dolphins.

Per the New York Times playoff predictor, the Colts currently have a 53 percent chance at making the playoffs. That number could fluctuate by about 27 percent depending on the win/loss result versus the Falcons this Sunday (65% if Colts win, 38% if Colts lose).

A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current situation:

With the Jaguars losing again in Week 15, the AFC South race is now getting heavy attention, and you have Trevor Lawrence in concussion protocol following their Sunday night loss to the Ravens. At 8-6, the Jaguars are tied with the Colts and Texans record wise, but Jacksonville has (and will win) the three-way tiebreaker over the Colts and Texans, no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Jaguars end the year with these 3 games: at Buccaneers, Panthers, Titans. For the Colts to finish ahead of the Jaguars, they’ll need one of these three situations to happen: Colts go 3-0 and Jaguars go 2-1 or worse; Colts go 2-1 and the Jaguars go 1-2 or 0-3; or Colts go 1-2 and Jaguars go 0-3.

The Colts are one of 4 AFC teams currently with a record of 8-6 and not leading a division. And 2 of those 4 are in the playoffs (Bengals and Colts) and 2 are outside (Texans and Bills). Again, one of the biggest things in the Colts favor down the stretch (along with a favorable quarterback schedule) is the fact they are 6-4 in the AFC. The conference tiebreaker is the first Wild Card tiebreaker between teams who didn’t play against each other this year and aren’t in the same division. The Colts are well-positioned with this tiebreaker, particularly when you compare them to the teams outside the current playoff picture.

The Bengals lead the quartet of 8-6 teams right now. Because divisional tiebreak is first used to break up Colts/Texans (Colts win that because they beat the Texans in Week Two). So next up is any head-to-head tiebreakers between the Bengals, Colts, Bills. And the Bengals win that because they beat both Indianapolis and Buffalo.

A reminder of the head-to-head tiebreakers won and lost by the Colts: Won: Steelers; Lost: Jaguars, Browns, Bengals. The Colts still have AFC games left with the Texans (already won the first meeting) and Raiders (unlikely to make the playoffs).

Should they just flex Colts and Texans into a stand-alone night game for Week 18? Currently, that game carries playoff weight of 60 percent (79 percent if Colts win, 19 percent if Colts lose), which is an insanely high mark. As you’ll see below, these next two games for the Colts carry some playoff impact, but nothing like the season finale vs. the Texans.

One potential thing to keep in mind looking ahead to the Colts and Texans in Week 18. A win would give the Colts the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans based off a season sweep. That’s easy. But a loss to the Texans would get confusing to settle the head-to-head tiebreaker between these two teams. Let’s say the Texans lose to the Titans in Week 17, but then beat the Colts in Week 18. If Houston wins that game, the teams will have split their head-to-head matchups ,and both would finish 3-3 in AFC South. So, the next tiebreaker would be strength of victory. Currently, the Texans have that tiebreaker (cue head spinning).