Week 14 AFC Playoff Look
Week 14 AFC Playoff Look: Colts Now A Wild Card Team
INDIANAPOLIS – For the first time since Week Two, the Colts are looking up at another AFC South team.
Currently, the Colts have a 68 percent chance at making the playoffs (per New York Times). With a Week 14 win over the Jaguars, those chances would climb to 85 percent. With a loss, those chances would drop to 51 percent. Currently the Colts have a 34 percent chance at winning the AFC South. With a Week 14 win over the Jaguars, those division title chances would climb to 54 percent. With a loss, those chances would drop to 14 percent.
If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be the 6 seed, hitting the road to take on the Jaguars in the Wild Card round.
With 3 AFC South games remaining in the final 5 weeks, it’s time to take another look at the playoff standings:
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current playoff situation: –
-It’s been a while since the Colts had to look up at someone else in the AFC South. But that’s the case in Week 14. Based off a tiebreaker in common games played, the Jaguars (8-4) are technically ahead of the Colts (8-4). Of course, with these two teams meeting twice in the next 4 weeks, those results will significantly impact the top of the AFC South. The Texans (7-5) sit just a game back. Houston will host Kansas City on Sunday football.
-The Colts have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL: at Jaguars, at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans. The Jaguars have the 16th hardest: Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans. The Texans have the 24th hardest: at Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, Colts.
-Heading into Week 14, the Colts are slotted 6th in the AFC, in the second Wild Card spot due to conference record tiebreaker. As we noted last week, things could get dicey for the Colts if this losing streak grows any. If you look at the first three AFC teams currently outside the playoff picture (Texans, Steelers, Chiefs), all of those teams have beat the Colts, so they have the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Colts (8-4) are just a game up on the Texans (7-5), and have a two-game cushion on the Steelers (6-6) and Chiefs (6-6).
-With 5 games left, it’s a big longshot for the Colts to get to that 1 seed. They are 2.5 games behind the Patriots (11-2), as New England heads for their bye week. They are also 2 games behind the Broncos (10-2), but do have the head-to-head tiebreaker there. Any legit shot at getting back to that 1 seed would have to surround a 5-0 finish, based off two teams still at just 2 losses in the month of December. Therefore, if the Colts are to make the playoffs, expect them to be playing on Wild Card weekend, and not getting the lone AFC bye.
-If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 5 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record)
Patriots (11-2, 6-2): Bye, Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins
Broncos (10-2, 6-2): at Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers
Jaguars (8-4, 5-2): Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans
Ravens (6-6, 4-4): Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
Wild Card Teams
Chargers (8-4, 7-2): Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos
Colts (8-4, 6-3): at Jaguars, at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans
Bills (8-4, 5-3): Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets
Outside Looking In
Texans (7-5, 6-2): at Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, Colts
Steelers (6-6, 5-3): at Ravens, Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens
Chiefs (6-6, 3-4): Texans, Chargers, at Titans, Broncos, at Raiders
