Week 12 AFC Playoff Look: Bye Week Unkind To Colts
INDIANAPOLIS – The Colts walked into their bye week atop the AFC. They return in the 3rd spot.
Plenty of good news is still there though for the 8-2 Colts as they are trying to win their first division title since 2014.
If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be the 3 seed, hosting the Chargers in the Wild Card round.
Examining the current playoff picture is starting to see some separation in the AFC, with the Colts holding an important ingredient when it comes to sifting through potential tiebreakers.
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current playoff situation:
-Entering Week 12, the Colts hold a 2-game lead in the AFC South. That’s a nice position to be in pre-Thanksgiving and not one the Colts have been in for quite a while. However, with 4 games left in the AFC South, 2 against the Jaguars and 2 against the Texans, things could shift a bit if the Colts don’t handle their in-division business. Both the Jaguars (6-4) and Texans (5-5) are in the “lurking” range, but they’ll need to beat the Colts if they are going to truly threaten the top of the division. By capturing the AFC South, the Colts would win their first division title since 2014 and host their first playoff game since January 2015.
-For now, the AFC’s 1 seed is the Broncos as they are now 9-2 on the season, with their bye week hitting this week. Also at 9-2, the Patriots slot in at No. 2, with their bye coming in early December. Because of those teams having already yet to have their bye week, the Colts remain a half game back at 8-2. If the Colts get back to having the same record as the Broncos and/or Patriots once the bye weeks cycle through, the Colts would have that current head-to-head tiebreaker (via a head-to-head win against the Broncos, via conference record over the Patriots). Remember when the NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams 2020, that meant just 1 bye in each conference. So even more of a premium is getting that 1 seed, as it’s the lone bye and gives you homefield throughout the playoffs.
-We will see how the rest of 2025 plays out, but the Colts head-to-head win over the Broncos could be quite handy as the standings shake out. Thanks to that leverage penalty, the Colts got another, much more manageable, crack at a game-winning field goal and snuck away with a Week 2 victory over Denver.
-As the Colts return from their bye, they are the only AFC team with just one conference loss. That’s a critical piece to tiebreakers. Unless you have played a team in a season, deciding non-divisional head-to-head tiebreakers will go to conference record. So if the Colts are going to drop any remaining games in 2025, ones against the Seahawks and 49ers would have less of a penalty, compared to the Chiefs, Jaguars (twice) or Texans (twice).
If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 7 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record)
1. Broncos (9-2, 6-2): Bye, at Commanders, at Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers
2. Patriots (9-2, 5-2): at Bengals, Giants, Bye, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins
3. Colts (8-2, 6-1): at Chiefs, Texans, at Jaguars, at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans
4. Steelers (6-4, 5-2): at Bears, Bills, at Ravens, Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens
Wild Card Teams
5. Bills (7-3, 4-2): at Texans, at Steelers, Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets
6. Chargers (7-4, 6-2): Bye, Raiders, Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos
7. Jaguars (6-4, 4-2): at Cardinals, at Titans, Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans
Outside Looking In
8. Texans (5-5, 4-2): Bills, at Colts, at Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers Colts
9. Chiefs (5-5, 2-4): Colts, at Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, at Titans, Broncos, at Raiders
10. Ravens (5-5, 3-3): Jets, Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
