“The waiting is the hardest part.” –Tom Petty
If you read “Let’s Parlay” last week, you may have noticed that I like to close each of my articles with a quote. However, this particular Petty lyric has such an obvious connection to the following few sentences that I couldn’t resist putting it up top. We’re less than a week away from September 1st, the first legal day of sports wagering in Indiana, and waiting couldn’t be more difficult.
It’s times like these that, as a sports bettor, you need to remind yourself that patience is king. Over time I’ve learned that some of the best bets are the ones I don’t make. Somewhere in the ballpark of 80-85{5dd8c7b63a028b9b3d9631c150841b4edbdaa573473167044a48eb9cc9fbf1fb} of the time, keeping your money in your pocket is the right decision. I realize there are a few “systems” out there that may say otherwise. Let me spoil the ending: they don’t work. You need to be selective in your process in order to have any hope of turning a profit.
Totals (or Over/Under)
As promised last week, here’s a quick rundown of what totals betting entails. 99{5dd8c7b63a028b9b3d9631c150841b4edbdaa573473167044a48eb9cc9fbf1fb} of football games listed at a sportsbook have a moneyline, spread, and “total” (also used interchangeably with “over/under”). Some or all of these options aren’t offered when a game is taken off the board (typically injury-related) or when a team is an overwhelming favorite (the moneyline might not be in play). Using the Colts/Chargers game as a reference, you can see that the over/under in the far right column is listed at 44. Updated odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook:
Notice that all three lines have changed dramatically since the news of Andrew Luck’s retirement broke over the weekend. More on this in tomorrow’s article…
The above total means that oddsmakers are projecting that the Colts and Chargers will combine to score 44 points. Factoring in the spread, the final score, mathematically speaking, would be 25.5 to 18.5 in favor of the Bolts.
Bettor Bias
Now, most every football fan would prefer watching a 56-52 double overtime shootout over a 17-3 contest, with the exception of my father. But he reads the newspaper twice a day and learned how to text six weeks ago. Still has trouble with the new microwave.
My point is that it’s human nature to side with the favorite and the over. It’s common knowledge that people, including the betting public, like high scoring games and dominant teams. Don’t think that sportsbooks haven’t realized this. We’ll take a closer look at over/under betting and ways to “beat the number” next week.
More to Come
Stay tuned tomorrow for the first ‘Game Selections’ edition of Let’s Parlay, featuring Purdue, IU/Ball State, and Notre Dame. You might also want to be on the lookout for a bonus article over the weekend while you’re enjoying the glorious return of college football.
“You think you’re gonna take her away with your money and your cocaine” –also Tom Petty
Don’t think too hard about that one.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images
