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INDIANAPOLIS – Yes, we first need to settle the debate on how much Anthony Richardson should/will play in his rookie season.
Whenever that happens, the expectations will also be there from Richardson in Year One.
No one has entered the NFL picked as high as Richardson when you factor in the combination of such a unique resume.
So how did some recent high-level quarterbacks play in their early NFL seasons?
Let’s take a look here:
Josh Allen
-Year 1: 11 starts (5-6), 52.8 comp %, 172.8 YPG, 10 TDs, 12 INTs, 6.5 YPA, 67.9 rating
-Year 2: 16 starts (10-6), 58.8 comp %, 193.1 YPG, 20 TDs, 9 INTs, 6.7 YPA, 85.3 rating
-Analysis: Allen is probably the most frequent comp (and hope for Colts fans) to Richardson. Obviously, you see a notable jump from Allen in his efficiency/production from that first season to his second. The Bills were a playoff team the year prior to drafting Allen, took a backseat in his rookie season, going 6-10, and now have made the playoffs every year since. Allen had some major accuracy questions exiting Wyoming, but the Bills embraced the inevitable growing pains and it paid off, big time. Of course, the trade for Stefon Diggs after Allen’s second season has taken the QB’s game to another level.
Jalen Hurts
-Year 1: 4 starts (1-3), 52.0 comp %, 70.7 YPG, 6 TDs, 4 INTs, 7.2 YPA, 77.6 rating
-Year 2: 15 starts (8-7), 61.3 comp %, 209.6 YPG, 16 TDs, 9 INTs, 7.3 YPA, 87.2 rating
-Analysis: Along with Allen, the Hurts comparison for Richardson is seen a lot, with the Shane Steichen connection coming into play. Hurts, a second-round pick in 2020, had plenty of college experience, but sat for the majority of his rookie season. With Steichen arriving to Philly following Hurts’ rookie season, you saw a big jump in the QB’s play. Those numbers rose even more when Steichen took over play-calling duties mid-way through that 2021 campaign. Such a massive jump in completion percentage from Year 1 to Year 2 stands out the most with Hurts, and the correlation with Steichen’s arrival has to excite Colts fans.
Justin Herbert
-Year 1: 15 starts (6-9), 66.6 comp %, 289.1 YPG, 31 TDs, 10 INTs, 7.3 YPA, 98.3 rating
-Year 2: 17 starts (9-8), 65.9 comp %, 294.9 YPG, 38 TDs, 15 INTs, 7.5 YPA, 97.7 rating
-Analysis: This is another Steichen connection. Steichen was the Chargers offensive coordinator in Herbert’s rookie season, but the plan was not for the 6th overall pick in 2020 to start in Year One. A freak medical accident with starter Tyrod Taylor right before the start of Week 2 thrust Herbert into sudden duty. And Herbert handled it glowingly, tossing 31 touchdowns, the most for any rookie in league history. Despite not being viewed as the Chargers starter with offseason reps, Herbert flourished in his first season, with Steichen calling the plays for him.
Cam Newton
-Year 1: 16 starts (6-10), 60.0 comp %, 253.2 YPG, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 7.8 YPA, 84.5 rating
-Year 2: 16 starts (7-9), 57.7 comp %, 241.8 YPG, 19 TDs, 12 INTs, 8.0 YPA, 86.2 rating
-Analysis: It was pretty steady from Year 1 to Year 2 for Newton, who was a one-year collegiate starter. Obviously, the rushing element to Newton can’t be ignored, with 22 total touchdowns and more than 1,400 yards on the ground in his first two seasons. You could easily argue Newton’s lack of growth in the passing game is why his career didn’t have more consistency throughout.
Kyler Murray
-Year 1: 16 starts (5-10-1), 64.4 comp %, 232.6 YPG, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 6.9 YPA, 87.4 rating
-Year 2: 16 starts (8-8), 67.2 comp %, 248.2 YPG, 26 TDs, 12 INTs, 7.1 YPA, 94.3 rating
-Analysis: Like Cam Newton, Murray had a rushing component that can’t be ignored (14 rushing touchdowns in these two years). It’s probably worth pointing out, during Murray’s start to his NFL career now Colts quarterbacks coach Cam Turner was working with Murray in Arizona. Also, like Newton (and Anthony Richardson), Murray was just a one-year starter in college but played right away in the NFL. As far as Murray’s NFL career has gone, questions about his off the field maturation is probably fair.
Lamar Jackson
-Year 1: 7 starts (6-1), 58.2 comp %, 75.1 YPG, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, 7.1 YPA, 84.5 rating
-Year 2: 15 starts (13-2), 66.1 comp %, 208.5 YPG, 36 TDs, 6 INTs, 7.8 YPA, 113.3 rating
-Analysis: The Ravens traded back into Round 1 of the 2018 Draft to take Lamar Jackson No. 32 overall. It took a bit of time before they turned to Jackson in Year One. Growing Jackson’s role to a full-time starter in Year Two saw major returns in him as a passer. Jackson did have multiple years of starting in college.
Patrick Mahomes
-Year 1: 1 start (1-0), 62.9 comp %, 284.0 YPG, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 8.1 YPA, 76.4 rating
-Year 2: 16 starts (12-4), 66.0 comp %, 318.6 YPG, 50 TDs, 12 INTs, 8.8 YPA, 113.3 rating
-Analysis: With Alex Smith and the Chiefs coming off a playoff season, they stayed with the veteran as the starter as Patrick Mahomes sat as a rookie. Mahomes played the regular season finale, with the Chiefs having already clinched a home playoff game (which they lost to the Titans). Mahomes entered the NFL with more than 30 career starts, but the Chiefs were in a low panic mode at QB, given Smith’s consistency of getting KC into the playoffs.
