Title photo by Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images
Next Sunday, every football fan in America will be tuning in to watch the NFL’s stingiest defense battle one of the most potent offenses in recent memory. There’s also some appeal for those not interested in the game’s outcome. Your wife or girlfriend may only be looking forward to the halftime show or the outrageous commercials, but if you say the magic words “Jimmy Garoppolo”, I guarantee her attention will turn to every Niners offensive possession as well. She’ll forget all about Adam Levine’s shirtless performance a year ago and wonder why you haven’t told her about “The Greek Hunk” all season. Super Bowl 54 will truly be a family affair for the ages. I’d bet on that up to -150.
The Super Bowl is the heaviest-bet sporting event in the United States year in and year out. Let’s take a look at some things to keep in mind while placing your wagers for the big game.
Stay away from ridiculous prop bets
While it may be fun to drop $20 on the result of the coin flip, don’t get carried away. From the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach to the jersey number of the last touchdown scorer, you can place a bet on just about anything. There is nothing predictable about these events, so unless you ‘re friends with the athletic training intern that filled the coolers, I’d keep your money in your pocket. And about that coin toss: tails has turned up 28 times in 53 years, while heads has won 25 flips. Don’t do it.
Underdogs and Overs
Looking back at every Super Bowl since the turn of the century, you’ll notice an alarming statistic: underdogs are 13-6-1 against the spread with 10 outright victories. The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 seasons. It goes to show that when the betting public backs a favorite with a ton of volume (lots of money being wagered), value lies with the underdog.
Initial Thoughts
The spread has stayed right at -1.5 in favor of the Chiefs since betting opened. I would expect the line to push closer to -3 as more and more novice bettors lay money down on Kansas City. At that point, I like the Niners to cover and would be willing to throw some change down on the moneyline as it drifts out to around +120 for San Francisco.
“Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships.” –Paul “Bear” Bryant
